Where most Game of Thrones fans were horrified by the beheading
of the beloved Ned Stark and blamed it on a ruthless king, Columbia University
business professor Bruce Craven saw a lesson in failed leadership. The
northerner Stark was simply too proud to adjust to the cutthroat nature of
King's Landing as it became mired in a scramble over royal succession. His
execution set into motion battles; intrigues, romances and resurrections that
will culminate this Sunday with the show's highly anticipated final season. In
the AP's weekly ‘Wealth of Westeros’ series; we'll be delving into the latest plot twists and analysing the economic
and business forces driving the story. We examine the show's central question
in Part-1, Who will win the Iron Throne? The judgment of Craven and other academic
minds may surprise you; Sansa Stark; Ned's eldest daughter. Sansa has grown
from a once-helpless princess with dreams of lemon cakes into a wily
strategist. She has endured marriages that were degrading and abusive; finding
ways to adapt and survive that her late father could never manage. ‘She's had
probably the closest involvement with the widest array of different leaders;’
said Craven; who has written a new business book; ‘Win or Die; Leadership
Secrets from Game of Thrones ’ Sansa has learned from Littlefinger's
manipulations. She's seen the pitfalls from what Craven calls Cersei's ‘transactional’
approach to leadership. And she's seen her kinsman Jon Snow's idealism
transform him from a brooding teenager into a military commander capable of
challenging the zombie army of the Night King. This education might be the
ultimate advantage, even if she lacks the firepower of Daenerys Targaryen's
dragons or the Valyrian steel sword wielded by Jon Snow. ‘She doesn't have
dragons. She didn't learn to become an assassin;’ added Craven; who admits his
prediction is just a hunch. ‘Everything she's gone through, part of me wants to
see her leverage that in some unpredictable way.’ Sansa does enjoy a major edge
in terms of resources, said Mark Wright; research director at the Federal
Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. From the US Civil War to World War II, victorious
armies have often gained a decisive edge by having the best equipment, stable
supply lines and multitudes of soldiers. Her perceived rivals for the throne
are running close to empty militarily and economically.
Thanks to her feeble cousin
Robin Arryn; the Knights of the Vale are under her command. Her troops are the
freshest and arguably best provisioned; given the Vale's rich soil that
provides for wheat, corn, barley and enviously large pumpkins. Her rivals have
suffered the destruction of their farmland and the depletion of their armies
after years of warfare and the occasional scorched earth dragon attack. ‘I
think it was Napoleon who said an army marches on its stomach;’ Wright said. Not
everyone, however; is convinced that Sansa will rule. The betting markets have
picked Bran Stark; her mystical and disabled brother. He might also seem like
an unexpected pick. Bran has the ability to journey through time. This gives
him an oracular power; but it has extinguished his former emotional warmth for
cold prophecies. He seems too detached from humanity to sit on the Iron Throne
or establish the personal connections that a ruler would need to rally a weary
populace. But to economists, his popularity on the betting markets matters a
lot. The market is the closest thing the public has to a three eyed raven. It
can forecast the future by distilling the wisdom of the crowds. The stock and
bond markets do this daily. He has no charisma and can't fight, and the show
suggested last season that he's no longer even a Stark. But Boyle Sports gives
him 4/5 odds. He's the top pick on Bovada; too. And on Oddschecker. And
Gambling.com. But of course, markets can be wrong. So can experts. Carolyne
Larrington, a professor of medieval European literature at Oxford and author of
‘Winter is Coming; The Medieval World of Game of Thrones;’ doesn't think Sansa
wants to sit on the Iron Throne; any more than her father did. Instead, she
sees Daenerys as the most likely choice; with her dragons and Dothraki hordes. Larrington
said the show, once known for its moral shades of gray; has become more clearly
a fight of good vs. evil as it nears its end. ‘I think that's why they'll play
it safe; and give it to Daenerys;’ she said.
Craven credits Daenerys with
having developed superior leadership skills: he inspires people by walking into flames and
surviving. She frees slaves and tries to rule for the benefit of others. Plus;
she has dragons. She is ‘the queen we chose;’ in the words of her interpreter
and adviser; Missandei. It's a
surprisingly positive lesson from a show that has relentlessly crushed so many
beloved characters. ‘All the leadership that goes forward successfully against
the odds with the exception of Cersei involves leaders that are motivated by
helping other people;’ Craven says. ‘Their leadership isn't strictly about
their own achievement or standing at the top of the org chart.’ Let's hope that
leadership style works against the army of the Night King.
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