Trade analyst Taran Adarsh
explains; ‘2020 was a disastrous year. Box office is still in the ICU though we
have pressed the reset button. All the producers and actors I have spoken to
are awaiting 2021. Everyone is working around the clock and planning and
executing projects. But they prefer to announce only in 2021. 2020; is over;
thankfully. And it’s not going to be missed at all.’ Akshaye Rathi, film
exhibitor and distributor; explains; ‘The only period that was relevant in 2020
was the first quarter - January to March. There were some phenomenal films
which released across the board. In Hindi; we saw Tanhaji - The Unsung Warrior and Baaghi 3 which did very well. Good Newwz which released on
the fourth last day of 2019 also did well in 2020. In Tamil and Telugu; Darbar and Ala
Vaikunthapurramuloo put up very good numbers. So in the first
quarter; it looked like the cinema business would continue to grow. Then of
course when the pandemic struck; everything came to a grinding halt. Till date;
barring Tenet and Wonder Woman 1984; there’s not been
any film which could kick-start the engines all over again. We are hoping that
some filmmaker would take the leap of faith with all the support that the
exhibitors can provide. Only then will the march towards normalcy only resume.’
Rs. 200-300 crore grosser in times of
pandemic?
Even if the important films do release in this situation, the
question that arises is - will those films have a chance to do business of Rs.
200 or Rs. 300 crore; like before? Or will it be impossible to do so in these
when all theatres are functioning at maximum 50% occupancy? Trade expert Komal
Nahta reasons; ‘A Rs. 200 crore hit is possible and I’ll tell you why. In the
first week; we normally see 80% occupancy. In the second week; it comes down to
55%. Now with 50% occupancy being allowed; that 80% occupancy of week 1 will be
divided into two weeks. In other words; the first week’s revenue will be split
into first two weeks. Suppose; a film manages to have a complete 50% occupancy
in the first week. So instead of 80%; it gets occupancy of 50% in the first
week. In second week; if the film is good; it’ll get 45% instead of 55%’ He
continues; ‘Sooryavanshi; for instance; would have done 80%
in the first week; 60% in the second week in normal circumstances. That totals
140%. So assuming that people have started coming to cinemas; it’ll have
occupancy of 40% in first week. And if reports are good; then it’ll also have
40% in week 2 and week 3 as well. So that comes to 120%; as opposed to 140% in
normal times. So now the film will require longer window. Instead of running
for 5 weeks in cinemas; it would have to now run for 7 weeks. So I am not
ruling out Rs. 200 crore grosser. Rs. 300 looks a bit difficult. Rs. 200 crore
is possible for Sooryavanshi.
In pre-Covid times, I would have betted Rs. 250-300 crore for it.’ Atul Mohan
agrees with Komal as he says, “The idea should be that what a film would earn
in 3 days should be able to do so within 7 days. In the pre-pandemic times,
many theatres used to discontinue a film after 15 days since occupancy used to
reduce day after day. But in the new normal, a film would and should run for 25
days to get the desired number of figures. It’s still difficult though.” Taran
Adarsh tells that a film can be a huge grosser if “that film is like Baahubali; in terms of content. If the
content is exciting enough to attract audiences to cinema halls again and
again, I am sure the film can do huge business. It has been proved even in the
past when there was no cap on occupancies that if the film didn’t have content
to stand on their feet; they would collapse even during holidays or festivals.
The audience can be very ruthless. At the same time; if there is good content
available in cinema halls, people would come in, irrespective of holidays or no
holidays. Baahubali and Avengers released on
non-holidays and look at their business. Or for that matter, even Kabir Singh and Uri - The Surgical Strike.’ Akshaye
Rathi stresses that we can get a potential super-hit film in these times too
provided a producer takes the plunge. He explains; ‘If people are going to
restaurants and are out in the malls; on the streets etc; basically everywhere,
there’s no reason for them to just avoid coming to cinema halls. Having said
that, you go to a restaurant because it serves great food. Similarly; you go to
a cinema hall not to enjoy the ambience. You go to enjoy the movie. Even in the
pre-Covid times, people were not turning up for films that didn’t have
intrinsic value or appeal. When you put out a Sooryavanshi or ’83;
people are bound to turn up to theatres. Yes; we understand that there are a
substantial number of people who would have come in the pre-Covid times who may
now not turn up now because of their fears or insecurities about the virus. The
potential loss that a producer would incur because of that section not coming
to cinemas can obviously be worked out by tweaking and negotiating commercial
terms with the exhibitors for those specific films.’
He continues; ‘It’s simple. After such a huge gap; if you put
out a very nice small film also; it might not be compelling enough for people
to take that risk for the first time. For that you need one big film to pull
audiences to come to cinemas; experience the safety and sanitization measures
that are being offered; realize that it’s safe to come to the cinema halls and
then they’ll start coming for the smaller, interesting films like before. I am
not saying that big film has to be Sooryavanshi or ’83 as
the stakes are very high. But it has to be a mid-segment film that stands a
very good chance like Shershaah; Mumbai
Saga;
Bunty Aur Babli 2 etc.’
by: mhmaamay mhmamay
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